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Game preview and analysis for the 2025 NRL Grand Final match up - Storm v Broncos

NRL Grand Final Storm v Broncos 2025

Venue

Accor Stadium, Sydney

Finals Facts

• 19 of the last 24 Premiers have won the comp off the back of finishing top 4, winning week one and having a week off into their Prelim final game (and then winning)

• In 2021 Panthers lost week 1 to then go on and win the Premiership

• 15 of last 17 Premiers were one of the Top 2 defensive sides that season – this year’s top two are Bulldogs 19.9 and Storm 18.6

• 6 of the last 8 grand finalists who had played 4 weeks straight, have lost (Panthers went 4 weeks straight last season 2021)

• No Origin or International Rep #7 or #6 – No Chance

In the last 44 years 42 of the Premiership winners had a rep (Origin or International) #7 or #6

• Top 4 losers’ week one of finals series have an 83% win strike rate in week two

So, we have the two teams who finished top 2 (Storm) and top 4 (Broncos); won through week one and then the advantage of the week off (and then won again); and one of the top two defensive teams of the season (Storm).

Weather

Dry days in the lead up to Sunday with a warm day and forecast top of 28, game time likely 25 degree warmth during game time.

Forecast here

Markets

Betr.com.au

Storm -2.5

41.5 Total Points

Game Preview

Both arrive here with slightly different setups. The Storm off a Friday night game, a stop start offering but good quality contest and hit out. The Broncos off a Sunday afternoon game, warm conditions, high ball in play, moments of obvious fatigue through the final 25 mins across the ground (both teams), and another late 16-point turn around win.

The Storm have conceded 18 (Bulldogs) and 14 (Sharks) with the later 10 pts with only a minute left in play; the Broncos 14 (Panthers) and 28 (Raiders).

The Broncos result last week an interesting watch. As can happen week after week in a tough finals campaign period (and Warriors and Bulldogs the weeks prior) the Panthers ran out of juice and the ability to ice the 14 pt lead and field position they had during the second half. They had 23 second half plays in the red zone (final 20m) to the Broncos 14 yet failed to nail the game and left the door ajar; and very unlike to their normal defensive strangulation of an opponent late into a contest came up short as the Broncos scored in the 70th and 76th minutes to steal the result.

I’d also suggest that the rocking, if not amazing, atmosphere of 50,000 home supporters cheering and willing their home team through that final 10 minutes can’t be underestimated. Per game the home ground advantage was likely measured as around 4pts in the handicap, on the day when it mattered it proved decisive.

Carrigan a significant in for this week, as was Reynolds, Mam and Willison last week, and so an all but best list offering. They have strengths with their big men through the middle and then rotation, and x factor off the bench in Mam and the rare skill and brilliance in Walsh. Haas is one very special big man player, his 80 minute offering last week one of the greatest of a big man in a pressure finals game of the modern era.

I did think last week that when Hunt, Reynolds and Mam were playing at the same time they were taking up a lot of time with the ball that lessened the set up, space and brilliance in involvement from Walsh, but they’ll have a further week to now make some likely adjustments to this.

I’m sure they will target the Storm’s questionable left edge defence in Munster, Howarth and Coates which has had some problem moments for the last few months in defending well together, and being stripped late with quick passing and or an overlap. Opposite this is a player in rare quality form in Kotoni Staggs having his best career season.

The Storm have looked better each of the last two outings, and last week with all of their best list offering all together again came up with a quality offering. Bellamy’s long term record has always suggested the final weeks are a mix of tapering and targeting the key weeks, led by getting their defensive attitude and efforts right.

Like their opponent, they got very key player ins back last week with Hughes, Papenhuyzen and Blore back, only weeks ago also getting Howarth and Warbrick back, and so arguably now their best 17 on the park. Last week was also the first time for a few months that they were able to play with Grant, Hughes, Munster and Papenhuyzen back together, their record this season very strong with 8 wins from the 9 games they have all play.

Utoikamanu week by week has been exceptional and the dominant big man player they had hoped for, while around him the work rate, attitude and effort is well balanced.

The Storm have a number of favoured attacking strengths, Grant and Hughes through the middle, Muster to the left (outstanding last week), the flying Coates and or one of the strongest right edge attack strike set up and finishing in the competition with Eliesa Katoa, Papenhuyzen chiming in or the big unit of Warbrick on the outside edge. The Broncos left edge defence has had its issues and been an obvious target for most opponents (Panthers peppered it with some joy last week), so I’m sure we see plenty of set up for the same here and Kotoa and his channel to see a lot of ball, he looks a great play as an any time try scorer.

Defence and discipline very much the obvious keys to this game. I do think a night game and stop start less draining outing last week aided by an extra two days recovery and prep help the Storm, but six weeks ago not many gave the Broncos much of a chance of being here let alone watch their two latest 16 point turn around results.

I marked the game 4 between them and so I am wider than the markets. I have had the Storm off a higher rating number all season long, and now with their best 17 on the field and that key spine back together I have them at that best number.

I expect the Storm will look to try and play a similar pattern and tempo to last week, speed things up where they can with the ball, play up tempo, draw some fatigue out of their opponent, and look for moments for the 9 and 7 back through the middle, the 6 to the left or the 12 and 1 to the right. The Broncos strengths have been off Haas and now Carrigan through the middle and setting up second phase play and opportunity, and the smarts around their kicking game and field position, and then the brilliance of the 1 and x factor the 14 can offer.

41.5 total points looks about right, and interestingly, Atkins ‘ season-long game average when in charge has been for 41 total point games. I suspect we might see a 42 to 46 point game and marked my scoreline expectations as something like 26 to 28 to 14 to 16.

Best on ground Clive Churchill history suggests that rep players (Origin or Internationals) dominate this award, and more often than not, when we have an Australian rep team about to be announced, the days following this game, and we have the Australian selectors as the medal judges, low and behold, the medal recipient stands out. I’m with Harry Grant ($6.50), he’s had some outstanding games this season in particular through recent months, is the Storm’s captain, yet to win a title and can shine here.

Storm to win

28-16

Eliesa Katoa any time try $2.70

Harry Grant Clive Churchill medal $6.50